- Published Date: Dec 6, 2008 11:30 PM
Could a better-oiled early warning system have averted the Mumbai attack? C Shivakumar finds out from a terrorism expert
Ajit Kumar Doval is currently the National Security Advisor. This is an interview published after Mumbai blasts. Doval was also a former director of Intelligence Bureau and the
first police officer to get the Kirti Chakra. He is one of India’s
foremost counter-terror experts and a reputed figure in the intelligence
community, having mentored some of the country’s outstanding
intelligence officers. In an interview to The New Indian Express in the
wake of the Mumbai attacks, Doval speaks about the need to depoliticise
national security and build a model like the United States’
Homeland Security to counter subversive forces. Excerpts:
Was the attack on Mumbai a failure of intelligence agencies?
It was a composite failure, intelligence agencies not excluded. The intelligence system proved good at collection level and in receiving early warnings, but processing, appreciation and follow-up coordination leaves much to be desired. In most cases, even this much of early warning may not be available. A highly alert system and professional competence is required to evaluate and develop inputs that point towards serious threats. A discerning eye is required to pick up the vital leads from the thousands that pour in. They need to be refined to actionable intelligence in real time.
How do intelligence agencies in India coordinate their functions?
The different intelligence agencies work in tandem, and different types of coordination are done at different levels. For preparation of composite national intelligence estimates, the National Security Council secretariat operates as the nodal point. At the strategic-tactical level, the multi-agency centre and the joint taskforce do the intelligence coordination. Both work under the Intelligence Bureau, the nodal counter-terrorist and counter-intelligence agency. In areas declared ‘disturbed’, the coordination is through unified headquarters wherever constituted. Best coordination, however, comes through close personal interaction between intelligence and executing agencies.
Would a model like Homeland Security in the US be suitable for India?
Homeland Security has many positive features — both conceptual and operational. However, India’s constitutional set-up, in its present form, does not allow its adoption. Making it applicable in our country requires certain surgical changes of the Constitution. This will need a national consensus that forces the Indian political parties to develop a positive bi-partisan approach towards national security. I think the time has come for intellectuals, think tanks, media, etc to start creating a climate for this change.
Do we need a security information network model, a computer-based counter-terrorism communications system connecting all states and union territories?
Yes, we must have a security information network model as in the US. e-connectivity for terror-related information should be achieved from the Intelligence Bureau to the remotest police station. There should be a centralised counter-terrorist data bank which, with suitable firewalls, should be accessible to all those engaged in the fight against terrorism.
Do we have a comprehensive national plan for securing the key resources and critical infrastructure of India?
We do have such comprehensive plans. I can assure you they are designed imaginatively and elaborately. However, there is a need for constant upgradation as new threats emerge.
Are our intelligence agencies so weak that each time an attack happens we point our finger towards Pakistan’s ISI?
The ISI has been — and continues to be — the main fountainhead of covert actions directed against India. If India — and many other nations — has pointed fingers at them for many of the attacks in the past, it’s for good and convincing reasons. It is not that Indian intelligence agencies are weak, it’s only that our working doctrine is different from the ISI. Unlike the ISI, our systems do not allow targeting of innocents and senseless violence to further ill-perceived strategic interests. The professional capabilities of the ISI today can be gauged by what is happening within Pakistan and the state’s complete inability to contain domestic terrorism.
While the Western countries have stepped up their intelligence after 9/11, why has India failed to do so?
Indian intelligence has upgraded its capacities in the wake of serious terrorist attacks. However, they still fall short. There is a need for substantial accretion in their capacities, particularly in respect of foreign-sponsored covert actions.
The comparison with the West is over-simplification of a complex problem. The US, for instance, does not have a 15,000-km land border like India. Nor does it, unlike us, share security problems with its neighbours. Further, unlike India, the US does not have centres of global terrorism in its immediate vicinity.
Moreover, subversive elements from India’s neighbouring countries can mix with local population and, at times, even find shelter and support. This would rarely happen in the US. Also, the resources Western countries are able to mobilise for strengthening their security apparatus are not comparable with India.
We also have certain anomalies in our polity in respect of Centre-State relations, which compound the problem. While internal security is the responsibility of the Central government, most of the instrumentalities like police, prisons, jails, criminal administration are under the state governments. The two models are hence non-comparable.
How long does it take for intelligence agencies to evaluate an attack?
There is no uniform yardstick to measure this. There are many operational variables that determine the time frame in which the probability, intensity, modus operandi, etc of an attack can be calculated. It also depends upon specificity, comprehensiveness and timeliness of the intelligence inputs received.
Don’t you think there is a need to depoliticise national security, insulating internal security from vote-bank politics and treating it on par with external defence?
I wholly agree that national security should be insulated from electoral and power politics. It is, however, easier said than done. It is surprising that while an Act against organised crimes exists in Maharashtra, the Centre has denied assent to the same to BJP-ruled states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Similarly, POTA’s withdrawal was more politically inspired than on considerations of India’s best security interests. Politicisation has also taken a heavy toll in terms of decline in police moral, professionalism and efficiency.
While our intelligence and security agencies claim to have uncovered plots and neutralised terror sleeper cell, it never reached to the roots. Is it lack of political willingness, lack of co-ordination or technological backwardness?
But for its having reached the roots, such successes would not accrue automatically. However, I agree there is still a lot of ignorance, confusion and lack of professionalism at the cutting-edge level in police and other security agencies. They need to be addressed immediately. They also require better training to meet the emerging threats. I don’t think politics plays a negative role in augmenting our capacities. However, if accorded a high political priority, it becomes easier to get the required resources and infrastructure support.
Do you favour US-type anti-terror legislation with legal safeguards like the National Security Act or the Patriot Act along with dedicated fast-track courts?
I am strongly in favour of it. First, it is an expression of the nation’s will, which is necessary for sending a clear message to our enemies showing our resoluteness. Secondly, it will work as a deterrent — not so much for the terrorists but to all those who extend direct or indirect help to them. Thirdly, it would enable and empower the law-enforcing agencies to fight terrorism more effectively. Lastly, it reduces the possibilities of the police resorting to short cuts to produce results by using methods that are not strictly in consonance with our laws. Strong laws reduce the probability of human rights violation.
The US had warned India about a potential maritime attack against Mumbai at least a month before last week’s massacre. Why didn’t the intelligence agencies act?
I’m not aware what intelligence was shared. Our intelligence had sufficient and specific bits of information. They could’ve helped if properly processed, integrated and responded.
People believe terror warnings are like weather bulletins. What is your opinion?
I do not agree.
The local police are unable to convert terror advisory into preventive actions on ground. Is this a gaping hole in our policing abilities?
I do feel our police set-up is not fully geared to meet the type of national security threats that arise from terrorism, left-wing extremism, insurgencies, organised crime, counterfeiting, drug syndicates, etc. It requires major change. Police reforms, as upheld by the Supreme Court, need to be implemented soon.
The three-tiered coastal security scheme remains unimplemented. Why?
It is because of lack of political will and bureaucratic lethargy. We need to strengthen our coastal security in a very comprehensive manner with time-bound deadlines. Besides the compelling security considerations, we need to protect our vital economic interests in two-million-sq km of EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). This vital area of security work has been delayed for too long.
Was the attack on Mumbai a failure of intelligence agencies?
It was a composite failure, intelligence agencies not excluded. The intelligence system proved good at collection level and in receiving early warnings, but processing, appreciation and follow-up coordination leaves much to be desired. In most cases, even this much of early warning may not be available. A highly alert system and professional competence is required to evaluate and develop inputs that point towards serious threats. A discerning eye is required to pick up the vital leads from the thousands that pour in. They need to be refined to actionable intelligence in real time.
How do intelligence agencies in India coordinate their functions?
The different intelligence agencies work in tandem, and different types of coordination are done at different levels. For preparation of composite national intelligence estimates, the National Security Council secretariat operates as the nodal point. At the strategic-tactical level, the multi-agency centre and the joint taskforce do the intelligence coordination. Both work under the Intelligence Bureau, the nodal counter-terrorist and counter-intelligence agency. In areas declared ‘disturbed’, the coordination is through unified headquarters wherever constituted. Best coordination, however, comes through close personal interaction between intelligence and executing agencies.
Would a model like Homeland Security in the US be suitable for India?
Homeland Security has many positive features — both conceptual and operational. However, India’s constitutional set-up, in its present form, does not allow its adoption. Making it applicable in our country requires certain surgical changes of the Constitution. This will need a national consensus that forces the Indian political parties to develop a positive bi-partisan approach towards national security. I think the time has come for intellectuals, think tanks, media, etc to start creating a climate for this change.
Do we need a security information network model, a computer-based counter-terrorism communications system connecting all states and union territories?
Yes, we must have a security information network model as in the US. e-connectivity for terror-related information should be achieved from the Intelligence Bureau to the remotest police station. There should be a centralised counter-terrorist data bank which, with suitable firewalls, should be accessible to all those engaged in the fight against terrorism.
Do we have a comprehensive national plan for securing the key resources and critical infrastructure of India?
We do have such comprehensive plans. I can assure you they are designed imaginatively and elaborately. However, there is a need for constant upgradation as new threats emerge.
Are our intelligence agencies so weak that each time an attack happens we point our finger towards Pakistan’s ISI?
The ISI has been — and continues to be — the main fountainhead of covert actions directed against India. If India — and many other nations — has pointed fingers at them for many of the attacks in the past, it’s for good and convincing reasons. It is not that Indian intelligence agencies are weak, it’s only that our working doctrine is different from the ISI. Unlike the ISI, our systems do not allow targeting of innocents and senseless violence to further ill-perceived strategic interests. The professional capabilities of the ISI today can be gauged by what is happening within Pakistan and the state’s complete inability to contain domestic terrorism.
While the Western countries have stepped up their intelligence after 9/11, why has India failed to do so?
Indian intelligence has upgraded its capacities in the wake of serious terrorist attacks. However, they still fall short. There is a need for substantial accretion in their capacities, particularly in respect of foreign-sponsored covert actions.
The comparison with the West is over-simplification of a complex problem. The US, for instance, does not have a 15,000-km land border like India. Nor does it, unlike us, share security problems with its neighbours. Further, unlike India, the US does not have centres of global terrorism in its immediate vicinity.
Moreover, subversive elements from India’s neighbouring countries can mix with local population and, at times, even find shelter and support. This would rarely happen in the US. Also, the resources Western countries are able to mobilise for strengthening their security apparatus are not comparable with India.
We also have certain anomalies in our polity in respect of Centre-State relations, which compound the problem. While internal security is the responsibility of the Central government, most of the instrumentalities like police, prisons, jails, criminal administration are under the state governments. The two models are hence non-comparable.
How long does it take for intelligence agencies to evaluate an attack?
There is no uniform yardstick to measure this. There are many operational variables that determine the time frame in which the probability, intensity, modus operandi, etc of an attack can be calculated. It also depends upon specificity, comprehensiveness and timeliness of the intelligence inputs received.
Don’t you think there is a need to depoliticise national security, insulating internal security from vote-bank politics and treating it on par with external defence?
I wholly agree that national security should be insulated from electoral and power politics. It is, however, easier said than done. It is surprising that while an Act against organised crimes exists in Maharashtra, the Centre has denied assent to the same to BJP-ruled states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Similarly, POTA’s withdrawal was more politically inspired than on considerations of India’s best security interests. Politicisation has also taken a heavy toll in terms of decline in police moral, professionalism and efficiency.
While our intelligence and security agencies claim to have uncovered plots and neutralised terror sleeper cell, it never reached to the roots. Is it lack of political willingness, lack of co-ordination or technological backwardness?
But for its having reached the roots, such successes would not accrue automatically. However, I agree there is still a lot of ignorance, confusion and lack of professionalism at the cutting-edge level in police and other security agencies. They need to be addressed immediately. They also require better training to meet the emerging threats. I don’t think politics plays a negative role in augmenting our capacities. However, if accorded a high political priority, it becomes easier to get the required resources and infrastructure support.
Do you favour US-type anti-terror legislation with legal safeguards like the National Security Act or the Patriot Act along with dedicated fast-track courts?
I am strongly in favour of it. First, it is an expression of the nation’s will, which is necessary for sending a clear message to our enemies showing our resoluteness. Secondly, it will work as a deterrent — not so much for the terrorists but to all those who extend direct or indirect help to them. Thirdly, it would enable and empower the law-enforcing agencies to fight terrorism more effectively. Lastly, it reduces the possibilities of the police resorting to short cuts to produce results by using methods that are not strictly in consonance with our laws. Strong laws reduce the probability of human rights violation.
The US had warned India about a potential maritime attack against Mumbai at least a month before last week’s massacre. Why didn’t the intelligence agencies act?
I’m not aware what intelligence was shared. Our intelligence had sufficient and specific bits of information. They could’ve helped if properly processed, integrated and responded.
People believe terror warnings are like weather bulletins. What is your opinion?
I do not agree.
The local police are unable to convert terror advisory into preventive actions on ground. Is this a gaping hole in our policing abilities?
I do feel our police set-up is not fully geared to meet the type of national security threats that arise from terrorism, left-wing extremism, insurgencies, organised crime, counterfeiting, drug syndicates, etc. It requires major change. Police reforms, as upheld by the Supreme Court, need to be implemented soon.
The three-tiered coastal security scheme remains unimplemented. Why?
It is because of lack of political will and bureaucratic lethargy. We need to strengthen our coastal security in a very comprehensive manner with time-bound deadlines. Besides the compelling security considerations, we need to protect our vital economic interests in two-million-sq km of EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). This vital area of security work has been delayed for too long.
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