Wednesday, September 11, 2013

TN may witness rise of 3.1 degree temperature by the end of the century

Chennai:
Summers are going to get warmer in Tamil Nadu and temperature could rise by about 3.1 degree Celsius by the end of the century, according to a report ‘Climate Change Projections for Tamil Nadu.

The report, which was prepared by Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, Anna University, also warns that life would be difficult in the urban areas where the temperature would exceed 45 degrees.

“This could result in migration of many species like bats and other animals,” said A Ramachandran, director of the research center.

Interestingly, the state is expected to get more rainfall during the north-east monsoon with Nagarcoil predicted to get an increase of 20 per cent rainfall. Ramachandran said that the coastal areas would also get an increase of seven per cent rainfall.

But he also warned that this could also result in flooding and rise in water borne diseases besides rise in malaria an dengue. He also warned that any increase in temperature in the coastal areas would affect the coastal eco system.

Interestingly, the highly vulnerable areas are the Western agro climatic zones which include Erode, Coimbatore, Karur, Dindigul and Tiruppur.  They are 77 per cent vulnerable to the rise in temperature followed by North Western agro climatic Zone (48 pc) that includes Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Salem and Namakkal. Even the high altitude areas like Nilgiris would witness a rise in temperature.

This could mean the crop pattern and agriculture pattern in the area has to be changed, he said. Interestingly, the focus of the sate government should be to conserve water, he said while suggesting the model of United Kingdom where they artificial dams are being built to conserve water.

The report also stated that the effect of warming of sea surface temperature could lead to associated sea level rise of 50 cm and hence coastal and Cauvery delta areas of Tamil Nadu are highly vulnerable to rising sea level and inundation problems.

The report also states that a slight decrease of rainfall during south west monsoon (june-Sept) and an increase in heavy rainfall episodes coupled with cyclones during the northeast (October-December)m monsoon season is expected.

The study was released by Mohan Verghese Chunkath, state additional chief secretary of environment and forests department. He said the study could help prepare a roadmap for adaptation strategies.


Ramachandran said that this is the first center in the country to provide future projection of climate scenarios at regional level at 25 km resolution  He said that UK climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact studies) which could meet the requirements of National Action Plan on Climate Change is utilized to provide huge pool of future climate information and to facilitate further climate change research.

Factfile
--- TN may witness rise of 3.1 degree temperature by the end of the century
---- Life would be difficult in the urban areas where the temperature would exceed 45 degrees.
---- Experts predict the rise in temperature could result in migration of many species.
---- The state is expected to get more rainfall during the north-east monsoon with Nagarcoil predicted to get an increase of 20 per cent rainfall.
---- Coastal areas would also get an increase of seven per cent rainfall.
---- Experts warn rise in flooding and water borne diseases.
---- Any increase in temperature in the coastal areas would affect the coastal eco system.
----The highly vulnerable areas are the Western agro climatic zones which include Erode, Coimbatore, Karur, Dindigul and Tiruppur. 
---- Crop pattern and agriculture pattern would undergo changes.
---- Sea level will rise to 50 cm and hence coastal and Cauvery delta areas of Tamil Nadu are highly vulnerable to rising sea level and inundation problems.
---- Center for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, Anna University is the first center in the country to provide future projection of climate scenarios at regional level at 25 km resolution  
---- UK climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact studies) is utilized to provide huge pool of future climate information.

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